Holiday Consumer Trends 2026: Early Signals Point to a Longer, More Selective Season

Early signals for the 2026 holiday season point in two directions at once: spending is still expected to grow, but shoppers are starting earlier, comparing harder, and protecting gift budgets while cutting back elsewhere. The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts US holiday retail sales of $1.013 trillion in November and December 2026, up 4.2% from $972 billion in 2025. Deloitte's survey puts average household holiday spending at $1,654, up 4% from $1,595 in 2025. The tension in those numbers is the story: growth is forecast, yet consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2014 in September. A season that grows on paper can still feel tight in individual households.

What the headline forecasts actually say

The NRF forecast covers November 1 through December 31 and excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants. NRF chief economist Mark Mathews said nearly half of the 4.2% growth should come from real consumer spending, with the rest driven by higher prices. NRF expects retailers to hire between 325,000 and 375,000 seasonal workers, close to an estimated 356,000 in 2025 — a measured hiring plan, not a surge.

Deloitte's retail forecast uses a different window, November 2026 through January 2027, so it should not be read as the same measure as the NRF figure. Deloitte projects holiday retail sales growth of 4.0% to 4.8%, e-commerce growth of 7.5% to 8.4%, and disposable personal income growth of 4.5% to 5.2% over that window. In Deloitte's survey, planned spending on retail goods rises 10% to $988, while planned spending on holiday activities falls 4% to $666.

Why spending can rise while confidence falls

The Conference Board reported on September 29, 2026 that its Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August — its lowest reading since 2014. The Present Situation Index fell 7.9 points to 109.3, and the Expectations Index fell 5.9 points to 63.6, its third consecutive monthly decline. Chief economist Dana M. Peterson linked the drop to references to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular.

Confidence measures mood, not spending directly. Households can feel worse about the economy and still spend on holidays they prioritise, and the NRF notes that the experience will vary by income, wealth, and exposure to everyday costs such as gasoline. Deloitte reports that Gen Z and millennial shoppers now represent 50% of holiday spend and are driving the expected gains, with double-digit planned increases in those groups.

Three early signals worth watching

• Value seeking is the default, not a niche. Deloitte classifies 38% of surveyed shoppers as holiday value seekers — people who shop promotions, redeem rewards, and look to private-label and other value alternatives — and says they expect to spend 12% more than other shoppers. Hunting for value while spending more points to larger, more deliberate baskets rather than impulse buying.
• Gifts are protected; activities are squeezed. The split in Deloitte's survey — retail goods up, holiday activities down — suggests households are protecting gifts for others first and trimming the extras around them.
• Experiences are gaining, but not replacing things. Half of shoppers plan to gift an experience this year, up from 47% in 2025 and 39% in 2024. Yet 79% of shoppers planning to gift an experience also want to pair it with a physical item, so the experience trend looks like an addition, not a substitution.

A decision frame for a household budget

These forecasts do not tell any single household what to spend. A practical way to use them is to decide three things before browsing: a total cap for the season, a separate list for gifts versus activities and self-spending, and what value means for each purchase — the lowest price, durability, or something else. That order matters because early-season promotions reward shoppers who already know their list; without one, a discount can easily become extra spending rather than a saving.

What could change the outlook

Forecasts are projections, not results. Fuel prices, inflation readings, jobs data, and actual October and November retail sales could each move the picture. The useful habit is to watch the actual sales data when it is reported, and to treat a single forecast — especially one whose window or definition differs from another's — as one signal among several.

Sources: National Retail Federation, October 15, 2026; Deloitte, October 15, 2026; The Conference Board via PR Newswire, September 29, 2026.

Figures in this post are forecasts and survey expectations as of mid-October 2026, not final sales results. Final holiday sales data are still to be reported, so the outcome needs additional verification when those figures are released.