Fed funds futures put the chance of a December rate hike at about 70%. That number gets quoted everywhere — but how much should you trust it? The graded track record is better than most people expect at short horizons, and the misses are instructive. Here is what the data actually says. The short answer: trackers that grade market-implied odds against real FOMC decisions find the market favorite right at every Fed decision since 2025, with the winning outcome averaging 91% a week in advance. But that percentage is a live, risk-tinted average — not a promise. It moves with every data release, it embeds a risk premium rather than pure expectations, and it has missed badly at turning points: in early 2022 the market priced roughly five hikes while the Fed delivered 425 basis points of tightening. The graded track record Two independent trackers have been scoring market-implied probabilities against actual decisions: 15 for 15 since 2025. PredictionMarketPicks' Fed Rate Trac...